A brief analysis of N. Spirig’s marathon pace
Nicola Spirig, the 2012 Gold medallist has participated toady at the marathon event of the 2014 European Athletic Championships.
Nicola Spirig had a personal best of 34:01 at 10km. That gives a safe prediction for 2:38 for a full marathon.
Her best time at half marathon was 1:15:29 that also gives a prediction of a 2:38 for the marathon.
She started the marathon with a 17:20 split at 5kms (3:28/km pace) and 34:31 for the 10kms. This was extremely fast. This is an average pace of 3:27 for the first 10kms (3:26/km pace for the second 5kms of the race).
A 3:26/km is the pace for a marathon runner who has the capability to finish at 2:24. The winner of the marathon, the French athlete that Nicola Spirig has followed for the first part of the race finished the race at 2:25:14. The French Winner had a correct pace strategy. Nicola could follow such a pace if she was capable to run 10kms at 31 minutes.
Nicola Spirig according to her PR at 10kms and Half Marathon should choose for a 3:46 pace.
Her decision to follow a 3:26-3:28 pace at the first 10kms and to lap a half marathon at a 3:30 pace was a disaster and that became obvious at the second part of the marathon:
- 20-25kms : 18:14 (3:39/km pace)
- 25-30kms : 19:42 (3:56,5)
- 30-35kms : 20:06 (4:01)
- 35-40 kms : 20:52 (4:10)
- 40-42,195 kms : 4,21 pace.
By taking in consideration the scientific work of the Spanish scientists we have seen that this the extremely fast pace at the first 3kms and the big difference of the second part compared to the first (14% in time) makes us to conclude that the athlete would have high amounts of LDH,CK and high muscle damage due to the wrong pave she has followed.
The athlete should start with a 3:45-50 pace and she could produce the same result in a much easier way.
Text : Giannis Psarelis (Tri NZ Level 2 Accredited Coach, ASCA Level 2 Certified Coach, ITCA Certified Coach )Email :firstname.lastname@example.org.